MUSLIM‐MUSLIM TICKET: ANOTHER APC ABRACADABRA!
-THE MYTH, THE MISCONCEPTIONS AND THE REALITIES!
There is no gain-staying the fact that Nigeria is an endangered nation, bedraggled by a plethora of seemingly intractable challenges, including unrestrained insecurity, economic depression, unmitigated corruption and undisguised acts of brigandage and impunity by the leaders of ruling party, among others!
After 16 years of PDP, during which Nigeria became the largest and fastest- growing economy in Africa; at which time the nation’s debts were settled, with the Naira waxing strong, the prices of services and commodities fairly moderate and a litre of PMS sold for #87, Nigerians, not satisfied with the state of the nation, clamoured for a change and we got it, as APC emerged at the centre stage in 2015!
Part of the bargain and the expectations, going by the promises repeatedly made by the “born-again” military dictator and new President, General Muhammad Buhari, during campaigns and at inauguration, include: the pledge to end Boko Haram within three months, eradicate corruption and grow the economy so fast that the Naira will become equivalent to the Dollar!
Within four years, Boko Haram waxed stronger, insecurity generally escalated, as terrorism manifested in the activities of herdsmen, while the economy witnessed unprecedented depression to the extent that Nigeria became the poverty headquarters of the world!
The more the APC failed in its promises to Nigerians in line with the change mantra , the more it continued to blame the PDP for its woes.Everything wrong in Nigeria, including events and disasters emanating from their initiated policies were ascribed to PDP! Towards the 2019 General Elections, the change mantra metarmorphosed into NEXT LEVEL. Nigerians were confused, torn between the options of a journey with APC into an unknown Next Level after the change agenda had clearly backfired or a reunion with PDP with the hope that the party, with the benefits of hindsight and experience, would be able to improve on its past performance and restore a listening administration, whereby it was possible for the government to reverse itself on policy decisions owing to national agitations, like it happened with the reversal of pump prices of petroleum products in January, 2012 and the suspension of action on full subsidy withdrawal in April, 2012, an option which remain closed till the end of the PDP era in 2015, notwithstanding its attractions in terms of additional funds to be freed into government treasury.
However, curiously and unfortunately, a number of factors denied the world of the opportunity to know the real intention and resolve of Nigerians in 2019, as the combination of malfunctioning card-readers, supported by indiscriminate use of Incident Forms and the sudden disappearance of inputs on INEC server aided and also beclouded the declared APC’s victory, such that Godsday Orubebe raised a dust! But President Jonathan, attuned to the national emergency, was magnanimous in conceding victory by calling to congratulate the official winner declared by INEC!
Now, the clock has turned full circle and another General Election is here! And as usual the APC is looking for another gimmick to cajole Nigerians once again into doing their ignoble bidding. While still grappling with the concept of emilokan(it’s my turn), Nigerians are now faced, if not dazed, with the dawn of a Muslim-Muslim ticket! Expectedly, the development has created a lot of food for thoughts and plenteous thoughts for food! This writer reluctantly, but compellingly joins the national discourse as Nigerians debate the latest abracadabra from the APC cupboard of gimmicks, by analysing the myth, the misconceptions and the realities of a Muslim-Muslim ticket!
Contrary to the opinion of some APC apologists and propagandists, who are of the view that the development should not be treated as an issue worth debating or deserving national controversy, this writer submits that it certainly requires thorough analysis, dissection and decoding, with a view to determining whether it is a good or bad omen for the nation or, put in another way, whether it is capable of solving or worsening the leadership problems in Nigeria.
It is apt to begin the argument on the professed objective of the same faith ticket as declared by the APC Presidential Candidate himself, Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu. According to him, it is not a device against Christians or an attempt to promote Islam above other religions, but a winning strategy aimed at Muslim voters. In otherwords, the APC flag-bearer hopes to win election in a multi- ethnic and poly-religious country like Nigeria with the votes of Muslims, majority of whom are from Northern Nigeria, whom he also obviously believes constitute the majority of voters in the country. With due respect, in view of practical realities on ground, that is the beginning of the myth and misconceptions!
To most observers and watchers of political developments in Nigeria, it was not surprising that the APC and its Presidential Candidate are looking for short-cuts to win votes in the forthcoming elections, since they have little or no achievements on ground to campaign with, to convince Nigerians to vote in their favour. But to think they would resort to a Muslim-Muslim ticket was unthinkable for many reasons!
First and foremost, it is a fallacy and misplaced expectation to assume that all or most Nigerian Muslims will cast their votes on the basis of faith or religion, especially a Muslim-Muslim ticket for crying out loud. As disillusioned as Nigerians are as a result of dashed hopes and defeated expectations by our national leaders,there are citizens who are patriotic enough to vote only on merit, just as there are others who will vote purely on religion, region or party lines. It is therefore presumptuous to calculate that Muslims irrespective of their personal disposions, regional sentiments, party affliations and other expedient factors, will throw away everything and jump into the boat of same faith ticket! Would Muslims in PDP, LP, NNPP, SDP, etc now turn their back on their parties to vote Tinubu-Shettima, on the basis of same faith ticket ONLY? The answer is obvious, a capital NO, at least for most cases!
Secondly, in line with the dictum, he who plays the piper dictates the tune and the axiom, to whom much is given, much is expected, does it not make sense that if someone relies on the support of a particular group of people to climb the ladder of power, does it not sound logical that it may be difficult for such beneficiary of group support not to favour the said supporters when the chips are down or ignore their interest or demand when occasion arises? The relevant question here is whether BAT actually addressed his mind to the full implications and interpretations of telling a multi-religious society that he is banking on the votes of his Muslim brethren to win election in Nigeria our beloved country!
Still on the misconception and myth of Muslim-Muslim ticket as a winning formula, it is difficult to ignore the tone, if not suggestion of a numerical superiority of a particular religion, contrary to the reality on ground. The first point to note which cannot be contested by any sane and objective mind is that the difference in numerical strength of Christians in comparison to Muslims in the South is much wider than any difference between the number of Muslims in the North in comparison with Christians! In this regard, it is instructive to note that the South East and South South are heavily populated by Christians. It is arguable that one can hardly talk of any state in the South West that is dominated by Muslims in numerical strength, in the same way that Ondo and Ekiti states are dominated by Christians.
In comparison to the above, there are states in the North which are dominated by Christian populations, including Plateau, Taraba, Benue, Nassarawa and possibly Adamawa, with others like Kogi, Kwara, Niger, Bauchi and possibly Kaduna, having fairly strong Christian presence! Be that as it may, the populations of states in the Muslim dominated North West obviously tilts the balance in the North in favour of Muslims. As a matter of fact, it has been variously submitted by statiscians and population/demographic experts that Christians account for about 40%, if not 45% of the population of Northern Nigeria!
At this juncture, it is necessary to clarify that the reference to Christian- Muslim ratios in parts of Nigeria is not to undermine any religion, but to expose the narrow line or gap between the populations of the two leading religions, North and South put together and therefrom suggest, without insult, that it is Penny wise and Pound foolish for any candidate to play the religion card in Nigeria’s elections, except if it is an excuse for a hidden agenda!
It is the considered opinion of this writer that the percentage of Christian voters who will go all out to vote against the APC because of the same faith ticket will by far outweigh the percentage of Muslim voters who will choose APC in view of Muslim-Muslim ticket! This becomes more realistic and probable especially in the North where the Christian faithful live in constant fear of opposition to and victimisation on account of their religion.
Meanwhile, if it is worth discussing the other celebrated reason for picking Shettima, is competence. Given this declaration, the obvious conclusion is that the APC Presidential Candidate do not believe that there is any Christian politician of APC extraction in the entire 19 states of Northern Nigeria, who is competent to be the Vice President of Nigeria, not even Governor Simon Lalong, who was later appointed as the Director General of the APC Presidential Campaign Council! No wonder the likes of David Babachir Lawal and Yakubu Dogara were so disappointed, they became party “rebels”, embarking on missionary journeys, exposing the dangers associated with the Muslim-Muslim ticket! Meanwhile, others like Daniel Bwala abandoned the APC to join other parties, to fight the injustice laden with insult!
It is apposite at this stage to ask a relevant question. As the nation continues to witness and acknowledge several people leaving the APC or staying within and campaigning against its Muslim-Muslim ticket, how come we don’t have instances of people leaving other parties to join the ruling party on account of being so excited with the same faith ticket? This is not a good signal for the advocates of the concept and their objectives!
The other myth and misconception to be addressed is the reference to June 12, I993 election, presumably won by Bashorun MKO Abiola on a Muslim-Muslim ticket, as a model to by replicated by APC in the 2023 election. To all intents and purposes, it is certainly wrong to use or rely on that election, as a precedent or excuse for a Muslim-Muslim ticket in the 2022/2023, THIRTY YEARS later!
The factors and arguments against using the MKO ABIOLA- KINGIBE experience as a template are numerous. Suffice to adumbrate the following to buttress the point being made here:-
The June 12, 1993 election was inconclusive, to borrow a later day INEC term, though presumably won by Bashorun MKO Abiola. There was no official declaration of the outcome of the election. As a matter of fact, collation of results was stopped midway into the exercise on a so called court order, with MKO and Kingibe heading to victory! Apart from the absence of official result, the other major thing to note here is that, since Abiola and Kingibe were not declared winners, they did not have the opportunity to be sworn-in to administer Nigeria, hence there was no occasion to observe the possible effects of a same faith civilian President and Vice President in Nigeria.
Moreover, it is necessary to pause and ruminate over why the announcement of results was halted and the election annulled. Could the issue of Muslim-Muslim ticket have been a factor, at least as an excuse? It is on record that the then Head of State, General Ibrahim Babangida, was against the same faith ticket ab nitio.He was said to have expressed his opinion to MKO himself, preferring a joint Muslim-Christian ticket, suggesting Pascal Bafyau, a Christian and former NLC President, from the North, as Running Mate to Abiola.This much was confirmed by no less a person than Ambassador Bagagana Kingibe, openly in an interview with NTA! But Abiola insisted on Kingibe. The rest is history!
For any decent mind, no insult intended, without any hidden agenda, what was considered against national interest by a Muslim Head of State in Nigeria, in 1993, when Nigeria was less divided along religious lines, should not have been contemplated at all, not to talk of being announced in 2022! This leads us to the next factor against same faith ticket in our country now for the 2023 election.
In 1993, Nigeria was not as religiously divided as we are now. If at all there was any division, it was not beyond, you belong to your faith, I hold onto my belief. There was little or no persecution on the basis of religion, nor was there any apparent and so glaring lopsidedness of sensitive positions in favour of any religion even under a military junta with their disposion to impunity, audacity and autocracy! There was also no terrorist organisation like Boko Haram, now allied with ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province) having religious undertone and agenda, with the church of God and Christians being clearly more at the receiving end! Besides, there was no herdsmen format of terrorism, with suspected motives of land grabbing and deeping of the Quran into the Atlantic as is the case today. And by implications, the raging debate about the tendencies towards Jihad-like operations and Islamisation, seemly with official backing, which now forms an integral and burning part of our national debate and questions, was totally absent from our public and media spaces.
Furthermore, you cannot compare Ambassador Bagagana Kingibe with former Governor Kashim Shettima, though they are from the same Borno State. The former is moderate, cool-headed, diplomatic and pan-Nigeria, whereas the latter is fanatical, conservative and more sectional in outlook, which is visible to the discerning mind in spite of whatever attempts to hide it, either with a deceitful mien or propagandist rebranding! Of a fact, he is yet to convince Nigerians that he is innocent of the activities of Boko Haram, just as people keep wandering about his role in the abduction of Chibok girls towards the 2015 Presidential Election.
Another major factor why people should not use MKO’s performance in 1993 election, to suggest that Nigerians do not mind a same faith ticket could be found in the personality of MKO. He was never a polician in the real sense of it. He was a pan-Nigerian personality and a bridge-builder, who made his name through philanthropic activities, thereby endearing himself to Nigerians of all tongues and denominations! Undeniably and uncontestedly, Bashir Tofa was not a match at all for MKO, just as Tofa’s Running Mate, Sylvester Ugoh was much lower on the political ladder below Kingibe! In any case, the main focus of Nigerians at the time was for the military to go and with little or no religious issues in the country, the combination of Abiola and Kingibe appealed to Nigerians, in the absence of any credible alternative.
Before concluding this piece, for the avoidance of doubt, in a well developed democracy, under normal circumstances, there is nothing wrong with same faith ticket or even same region ticket! In such places the values of society and principles of governance would have been so clearly defined and structured that no President can tamper with the fundamental policies and directive principles of public service without facing dire consequences, including impeachment! In Nigeria of today, our democracy is still work in progress and just too fragile to accommodate dangerous experiments like a Muslim-Muslim ticket! And for Christians, some of the developments and incidents in our body polity in recent time readily makes a Muslim-Muslim ticket nothing but a taboo, ringing an alarum bell! In such set-up there will be no sleep or peace of mind, because of the suspicion that is already there, being fuelled and established by contemporary facts and figures in the scheme of things in the country. For Christians, to stomach or accommodate such occurrence would be like a case of someone, who sets hos house on fire, who cannot afford to sleep! Even in the present administration, with not just a Christian, but a senior pastor as Vice President, we know that things are undeniably tilted against the Christians, particularly Northern Christians. It is therefore easy to conclude that a Muslim-Muslim regime would make things worse, unimaginable, therefore untenable, at least from the perspective of Christians and other non-Muslims, even for some Muslims!
In conclusion, the reality of today is that Nigeria needs a President, who loves the nation genuinely and who is committed, prepared and adequately equipped to tackle the myriad of problems facing the country! And such a man, akin to someone coming to equity, must come with clean hands and an open mind, seeking and canvassing for the votes of Nigerians, across all divides, treating all Nigerians, men, women, young, old, Christians, Muslims, traditional worshippers and unbelievers alike, without fear or favour, affection or illwill, segregation or separation, intimidation or discrimination and without any secret or hidden agenda that could later backfire to negatively affect the capacity and will of the President to perform his sacred duties as the Chief Executive and Commander-In-Chief of the Federal Republic of Nigeria!
– By John Ola Mafo